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FFC wrote:sorry guys, what was that about vande velde again? I don't think I quite caught it..... that he was the value bet - at $15 while he was within a minute of the lead it was hard to argue, especially as Evans was odds-on. No-one said he would win. If you go back a page I think I posted a comment ridiculing those who thoguht Evans was in trouble.
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bob.satan wrote:
Cadel won up Mont Vonteux earlier in the year and he would have riden d'heuz many times. Mind you, every climber wants to win up these two mountains.
This is the key stage of the tour
Why the ***** has Mt Ventoux not been on the tour since 2002 when that peanut Virenque won? I hate the fact that that h0m0 was the last person to win up there in the Tour. If Cadel gets to the foot of L'Alpe d'Huez in relative comfort, he really should win the tour. He will also benefit from what happened to Menchov last night. CSC know that of all the other riders, Menchov will be the one who needs to attack the most - likewise, they know that if he pulls of a successful attack, he will gap them in the TT, so they have to mark him just as hard as everyone else has to mark them. Tonight they really have to make a decision as to who they are riding for - there is no two ways about it.
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Dragons89 wrote:Popovych showed what he can do in this stage. Whoever said earlier that Silence lotto were saving him for stages 16/17.....good call.
Have to admit I was given that impression from an interview with one of his team members. Makes sense really. It's these two stages Evans is at greatest risk in. He easily rode on the other teams wheels while they are working their @rses off in the earlier stages. Popovych is an awesome climber and is much better then he has shown before last night. It's a worry how hard CSC are driving their guys. They are using heaps of energy in trying to break a guy that just keeps tagging on to their wheels out of the wind. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few CSC riders blow up big time tonight. Andy Schleck is fairly decent. He has looked done about 10times now and just keeps picking himeself up for another go. I hope he is clean, he has been the best rider to watch this year along with Jens Voight.
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i think stage 16 was just the calm before the storm. watch out for some massive attacks from team csc on tonights stage.
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guzroo wrote:i think stage 16 was just the calm before the storm. watch out for some massive attacks from team csc on tonights stage. i'm not disagreeing with you but I've got to say, the speed at which they have ridden up some of the climbs - particularly last night's - already has been phenomenal but they haven't snapped anyone yet. I know that their actual 'attacks' whereby one rider takes off the front of the pack have been infrequent, but you could say that their whole tour has been one big attack given how hard they've gone out.
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Willie????
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Phat wrote:I know that their actual 'attacks' whereby one rider takes off the front of the pack have been infrequent, but you could say that their whole tour has been one big attack given how hard they've gone out. I'm sure they'll be throwing everything they've got at Evans and Menchov. And I reckon Menchov will also be attacking Evans probably on L'Alp d'Huez. It'll be a tough night for Cadel.
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SteveW wrote:
I'm sure they'll be throwing everything they've got at Evans and Menchov. And I reckon Menchov will also be attacking Evans probably on L'Alp d'Huez. It'll be a tough night for Cadel.
As i said, I reckon the fact that Menchov will be attacking (I agree with you totally) will work in his favor in one way ie. if Menchov is attacking heaps, it will not only be Cadel but also the CSC riders who have to guard against him. If Cadel is lucky they might cancel each other out.
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looking at the profile for stage 17 there are 3 HC catergory climbs with the finish being on one of those climbs. i think with that in mind the main bunch of contendors will probable stay together untill that last climb.
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Franck Schleck won this stage the last time they went up there right?
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Stage 17.
Big one tonight. I read this on another forum
"CSC will attack Evans over and over, and Sastre will prevail - revealing CSC's master plan, that Schleck all along was the rabbit and never the team's pick for the Yellow"
I hope this is the case as i got money on Sastre and it's not a bad thought as Sastre is better at TT than Shleck.
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How much will Schleck/Sastre need to put on Cadel to win the tour?
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guzroo wrote:i think stage 16 was just the calm before the storm. watch out for some massive attacks from team csc on tonights stage. There was a strong headwind for most of the ascent, they would have struggled to launch much of an attack last night.
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aussietomo wrote:How much will Schleck/Sastre need to put on Cadel to win the tour? Sastre would need 3 minutes to be confident. Schleck probably 2 and a half.
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aussietomo wrote:Franck Schleck won this stage the last time they went up there right? uh uh. Some great climbers have won on this mountain - though the fact that they visit it every year now means that more and more there are nuffies winning the stage up it.
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Phat wrote:
that he was the value bet - at $15 while he was within a minute of the lead it was hard to argue, especially as Evans was odds-on.
No-one said he would win. If you go back a page I think I posted a comment ridiculing those who thoguht Evans was in trouble.
i'm not attacking you, so don't worry. I'm looking at this comment in particular: willie wonka wrote:cadel will lose to much time in the alps,he will ride a strong time trial but he will not be enough to get him over the line
the winner will come from vande velde or menchov,kohl,schleck and castre have zero chance as well
 egg on the face much?
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Phat wrote:
Tonight they really have to make a decision as to who they are riding for - there is no two ways about it.
i agree 100%. CSC has been too indecisive so far for mine, but they have plenty of time to rectify that tonight. Cmonnnn Cadelll!
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guzroo wrote:looking at the profile for stage 17 there are 3 HC catergory climbs with the finish being on one of those climbs. i think with that in mind the main bunch of contendors will probable stay together untill that last climb. Evans is by far the best decender of the top riders. He can afford to be down a bit on both the first two climbs to night and make it up before the start of the next, but only if Popvych stays with him. He would have had a 10 second break on them last night but for a close shave with a motorcycle copper on the decent that made him come to a dead stop and allowed the chasers to close the gap on him. Cadel wasn't too impressed when they spoke to him about where this stupid cop had parked on the outside of a 90km/hr bend. I'm just hoping the hard riding CSC have done starts breaking some of them. O'Grady can't have too many more hill climbing efforts like last night in him. Jens Voight must be running on a near empty tank as well. All their team has been doing a heap of grunt work in some pretty rough terain.
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Phat wrote:
uh uh. Some great climbers have won on this mountain - though the fact that they visit it every year now means that more and more there are nuffies winning the stage up it.
No one that wins that stage could be described as a "nuffy" btw. Every one of the riders that get to the top tonight are definite somebodies imho.
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The rest of the Silence team need to be a little more supportive if they can tonight, CSC have been way to over represented in the main groups so far. Evans plan i reckon will be to repeat the last few stages and just stick with the group that matter leaving some juice for the TT.
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